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Analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market

May 15th, 2012 · No Comments · Carpinteria Real Estate, Ennisbrook, Mark Lomas and Kirsten Wolfe, Montecito Real Estate, Property Search, Santa Barbara Real Estate, Santa Barbara Realtors, Summerland Real Estate, The Real Estate Concierge, The Real Estate Scene

This is an analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate market including Carpinteria/Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch, downtown Santa Barbara and Goleta through the month of April 2012. For the Home Estate/PUD market April marked the second month in a row that sales were at or above 100. The median sales price fell however from $835,000 in March to about $760,000 in April. The reason for the decline in that median sales price is that 70 of the 100 sales were below $1,000,000 with 43 of those sales coming in between $450,000 and $800,000. There were about 20 sales between $1 and $2 million but of those sales 10 were below $1.4 million. The above $2 million range accounted for 10 of those 100 sales with 2 of those 10 coming in above $5 million.

Escrows continued to surge in April with about 145 Home Estate/PUDs starting the buying process. But, just like with sales, the median list price on those escrows slid from $816,750 in March to $789,000 in April. With the inventory way down and a substantial number of sales drawing multiple offers I would expect prices to start rising but at this point that phenomenon has not occurred.

Comparing the first 4 months of 2011 with the same period in 2012, sales are still up about 35% with escrows up about 45%.  The median & average sales prices are down however, falling about 3% with the inventory down about 25%. Year over year the Sales Price to Original Price ratio is right at 87% for both years and the days on the market of sold properties continues right around 75.

Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are up from 22 to 27 and the median sales price is up from $617,500 to $737,500. The numbers of escrows are also up going from 27 to 32 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $737,000 last year to $849,000 this year.

For Montecito, sales are up going from 45 to 64 with the median sales price dropping from $2.25 million last year to $1.824 million. Escrows are also up going from 64 to 89 but the median list price on those escrows is down from $2.617 million to $2.19 million.

East of State St sales are up going from 62 in ’11 to 95 in ‘12 but the median sales price is down from $950,000 to $849,500. The escrows are also up going from 84 to 115 with the median list price on those escrows dropping from $977,500 last year to $887,000 this year.

West of State St sales are up from 57 to 61 and the median sales price is up from $682,000 to $749,000. The numbers of escrows are also up with 62 in ’11 compared to 91 in ‘12 but the median list price on those escrows is down from $739,000 last year to $699,900 this year.

Hope Ranch sales are down from 7 to 6 but the median sales price is up from $1.787 million to $1.82 million. The numbers of escrows are also down with 11 last year compared to 6 this year. But, the median list price on those escrows is up from $1.947 million in ’11 to $2.295 million in ‘12.

Goleta South sales are up with 16 last year and 35 this year but the median sales price is down from $605,000 to $540,000. The numbers of escrows are also up from 25 to 53 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $575,000 to $579,000.

Goleta North sales are up with 52 in ’11 and 66 in ’12 with the median sales price dropping from $699,000 to $612,500. The numbers of escrows are also up from 50 to 82 with the median list price on those escrows falling from $679,000 to $614,900.

For the Condo segment of the market, after the 41 sales in the month of March we came back to earth in April with 28 closed escrows. The median sales price also slid a bit dropping from $406,000 in March to $400,000 in April and the numbers of escrows fell from 52 to 44 for the month. The median list price on those escrows also dropped going from $409,990 in March to $389,000 in April. With the overall inventory remaining down at around 100 available condos from Carpinteria to Goleta and all the escrows and sales with multiple offers I would expect prices to start edging up but so far that is not the case.

Looking at the Year over Year numbers, condo sales are up about 45% and escrows are up 95%. The median sales price is up minutely by .2% with the average sales price down approximately 9%.  But, the median list price on condos in escrows is up 3%. The Sales Price to Original List Price ratio is down slightly however from 90% to 89% and the Days on the Market for sold properties has risen a bit from 80 to 82.

Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down from 19 to 11 with the median sales price falling from $350,000 to $330,000. The numbers of escrows are also down from 22 last year to 17 this year and the median list price on those escrows is down from $359,900 to $354,500.

Montecito condo sales are up with 5 in ’11 and 6 in ‘12 with the median sales price also up from $645,000 to $1,027,500.The numbers of escrows are up with 5 in ’11 and 10 in ‘12 while the median list price on those escrows is up from $1,195,000 in ’11 to $1,222,500 in ‘12.

East of State St sales are up from 11 to 30 with the median sales price rising from $420,000 to $465,040. The numbers of escrows are also up going from 12 to 61 with the median list price on those escrows falling from $601,000 last year to $599,000 this year.

West of State St sales are up from 13 to 25 with the median sales price falling from $425,000 to $400,000. The escrows are up from 22 to 35 with the median list price on those escrows falling from $424,500 to $350,050.

Goleta South sales are down from 18 to 17 with the median sales price also down from $369,000 to $258,000. The numbers of escrows are up however with 19 in ’11 and 25 in ‘12 but the median list price on those escrows is down from $375,950 last year to $264,900 this year.

Goleta North sales are up from 9 to 14 with the median sales price down from $375,000 to $333,750. The escrows are also up from 12 to 25 with the median list price on those escrows falling from $379,000 to $365,500.

Starting quarter two, sales and escrows remain strong for both Single Family Dwellings and Condos and inventories remain low with about 400 Homes and 100 Condos currently on the market. Despite a substantial number of multiple offers occurring for both condos and homes very few of those offers have been for over the asking price. In fact, the median sales price for both segments continues to increment down.  At some point, if the inventories remain low and demand continues high I would think the basic law of supply and demand would kick in but at this point that is not the case.

Submitted by Chuck Farish, Branch Manager – Coldwell Banker Montecito

 

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